Fourth Quarter Conference Call – Fiscal 2003

11 / 07 / 2003

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The results for the quarter were about 4% off the forecast we made 90 days ago. As I’ve mentioned in the past, many of our industrial products have lead times between four and eight weeks, and it’s impossible to predict with precision even the outcomes 90 days forward.

Industrial Fiscal ‘03


For the entire fiscal year, sales of $267 million were up about 6%. Compared with last year, that’s an increase of $14 million, but it was achieved in spite of a $17 million decline in sales of turbine controls, all of which was felt in the U. S. If we took our turbine controls business out of the whole picture, we would have seen a $31 million sales increase, or about 15%, on sales last year of $212 million. About half of the increase was currency. Nevertheless, the increase was broadly based and occurred in almost all our major product lines. And, as happened in the fourth quarter, the increase occurred in Europe and Asia.

Industrial margins for both the fourth quarter and the year came out about where we had predicted. Margins for the quarter of 6.6% were up from last year and consistent with the most recent quarter. For the year, we came out at 6.3%.

Industrial Fiscal ‘04


In our conference call 90 days ago, we forecasted our Industrial business for fiscal ’04 in a range between $283 million and $303 million. Although our actual sales for the fourth quarter of ’03 were about 4% off what we were forecasting ninety days ago and, although the picture for incoming orders in the fourth quarter was somewhat mixed, we’re still optimistic that we’ll meet our ’04 forecast. We seem finally to be seeing slight improvement in the U. S. Based on this intelligence, we are confirming our Industrial sales forecast of $293 million + $10 million and our margins ranging between 8% and 9%. This forecast represents an Industrial sales increase of between 6% and 13% and an improvement in operating profit of at least 34%. If we can achieve those results in fiscal ’04, we’ll be more than satisfied.

Fiscal ’04 in Total


Taken altogether, the results achieved in the fourth quarter of fiscal ’03 were very close to what we had been projecting. As has been the case in the last few quarters, our Aircraft product line, and particularly the military portion, has more than offset the weakness in our Space & Missiles business and in some parts of our Industrial portfolio. What’s occurred in the last 90 days allows us to confirm the forecast for fiscal ’04 for the basic Moog product line. This forecast projected sales in a range of between $780 million and $800 million.

We’re sure that you’re all aware that we closed on the acquisition of the Litton Poly-Scientific Division of Northrop Grumman on September 30, 2003, the second day of our fiscal year. In the last month, there have been numerous activities to engage the management of Poly-Sci in various activities in the Moog Company. Similarly, we’ve begun a major effort to acquaint folks in all of the Moog organizations with the products and technology available in this new entity. We’re intending to maintain Poly-Scientific as a brand name only for the slip ring product line, and we intend to refer to this new segment of our Company as the Moog Components Group. The leadership, Larry Ball and his staff, will continue as the leadership of this new segment. We’ve previously projected sales for the Moog fiscal year ’04 of $140 million.

Incorporating the sales of the new Moog Components Group, we’re forecasting total sales ranging from $920 million to $940 million, and earnings ranging from $54 million to $58 million, or $3.10 to $3.30 per share.

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