Fourth Quarter Conference Call – Fiscal 2002

11 / 13 / 2002

1   2   3   4   5   6  


So, when you put the two components together, compared to what we said in our last conference call, we’re seeing an increase in the military side of $22 million, a decrease in the commercial side of $14 million, and a net increase over our last forecast of $8 million in Aircraft.

Turning to margins, we’re coming off an excellent Aircraft margin performance in ’02. We completed the year at 18.2%. This year, in ’03, we’re going to see a lot more relatively lower margin cost plus revenues on the F-35. Last time, we projected ’03 at 15.6%. Based on the changes since then, we’ve now increased our margin expectation up to 16.4%.

Ninety days ago, we were much more optimistic about the space business than we are today. At that time, we thought we’d finish ’02 at something close to $114 million. It came out to be $107 million. We’d anticipated incoming orders for the quarter at $11 million higher than we experienced, and we think $7 million of those orders are gone for good. In addition, as a result of the reduced volume, our margin performance in the fourth quarter suffered.

Given that set of circumstances, we’ve taken a hard look at our forecast for ’03. We’ve revised an earlier prediction of $104 million in sales down to $98 million, and the change is all in orders for equipment on satellites and space vehicles.

We’ve also chosen to be more conservative with respect to our margin expectations. Last year, we finished the year at 11.5%. But, in the final quarter, with sales at a rate only $1 million less than the run rate we’re projecting for ’03, our margins were at a very low 5.5%. With that in mind, we think 7.5% for ’03 is now a sensible expectation.

If our sales for ’03 materialize in accordance with this new forecast, our revenues in satellites and space vehicles will be down over $8 million, reflecting the completion of the work on the Crew Return Vehicle and a 12% reduction in our satellite business. Our launch vehicles, at $11 million, will be up about $1 million from ’02, as a result of a number of new contracts on the second generation reusable launch vehicle. We’ll see an increase in missile defense, which will be offset by reduced deliveries on tactical missiles, reflecting the completion of the AGM-142 and a lower production rate on Hellfire.

We’re now projecting Industrial at about $268 million. This is an increase of about $15 million from our actual results of ’02. Other than a $4 million increase in combat controls (industrial equipment used on military vehicles) our ’03 forecast is roughly comparable to our ’02 sales volume, increased by the impact of a stronger Euro. There actually are, however, some swings in the product lines. We’re looking for a substantial decline in the turbine business from $41 million down to about $28 million, which will be offset by increases in the plastics business, material test (that’s mostly the TSS acquisition), an increase in repairs, partly influenced by TSS, and a couple new jobs in the simulator business.

Another relevant comparison is the delivery rate in our fourth quarter. For the most part, our ’03 forecast matches up with the revenue rates by product line that we experienced in the fourth quarter of ’02.

Our current projection of $268 million is down $6 million from what we’d forecasted 90 days ago, and most of that change is a more conservative view of our prospects in turbine controls.

With respect to margins, we’re still comfortable with the 7.5% margin forecast that we made last time. I’m sure you’ve noticed that our margins began to improve in the fourth quarter of ’02. As we’ve mentioned a couple times, we think we have taken the appropriate action and margin improvement will develop as the year goes by.

1   2   3   4   5   6  

© Moog Inc.
Email This Page

Search Results

Looking for documents matching your search criteria ...